Middle East and North Africa

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Of the 6 million people displaced during the conflict with ISIL, 1.3 million people remain internally displaced with limited prospects of durable solutions. Many of the 4.7 million returnees still experience acute humanitarian needs, jeopardizing sustainable returns. The impact of COVID-19, particularly the loss of livelihoods, disrupted access to services and increased protection risks (including GBV), has increased humanitarian needs among conflict-affected populations, particularly in out-of-camp and return locations.

Protracted displacement continued in 2020. Ninety-two per cent of IDPs have been displaced for more than three years, with under 1 per cent of IDPs returning per month on average. Four out of five IDPs live in out-of-camp settings. The main obstacles to return remain damaged or destroyed houses, and a lack of livelihoods and basic services in areas of origin. Insecurity in areas of origin also remains a key challenge to return.

Options for durable solutions remain limited. Progress on improving conditions in return areas at the beginning of the year was reversed by the impact of COVID-19. This complicated efforts to ensure durable solutions to displacement and jeopardized sustainable returns. Government-led camp closures since October 2020 could push in-camp IDPs into areas with limited options for a safe and dignified life.

Humanitarian needs have become more acute. COVID-19 exacerbated pre-existing vulnerabilities among conflict-affected populations, resulting in increased use of negative coping mechanisms. In-camp IDPs have become increasingly aid dependent as livelihoods were lost due to COVID-19. Acute needs have also increased in out-of-camp settings, with the percentage of out-of-camp IDPs in acute need increasing from 36 per cent to 45 per cent over the past year. Thirty-eight per cent of returnees now face acute needs, compared to 28 per cent last year. In the absence of durable, safe and dignified solutions to displacement, and due to the compounding effects of COVID-19, 4.1 million IDPs and returnees need humanitarian assistance, with more than half (2.4 million people) facing acute need.

Projected situation in 2021 and beyond

The situation in Iraq is extremely volatile due to COVID-19 and the political and security context. The humanitarian community plans for a flexible humanitarian response, adapting to the changing circumstances throughout the year.

The closure of IDP camps has been a goal of successive Iraqi administrations. In October 2020, the Government started closing several IDP camps, with more expected to close in the coming months. Based on previous experience, sudden and premature camp closures result in substantial secondary displacement, with about one third of camp departures resulting in returns unlikely to be sustainable.

COVID-19 will continue to impact the situation in the country. Iraq’s economy is projected to contract by 9.3 per cent in 2020 and poverty rates are expected to increase. Millions of people could end up using negative coping mechanisms to meet basic needs. The provision of essential health services is under pressure, and families are not accessing essential services, including immunizations and mother-and-child health care, to the same extent as in 2019. An estimated 300,000 children risk missing vaccinations, which could lead to measles outbreaks or the return of polio (eradicated in 2014).

The impact of COVID-19 hits conflict-affected populations particularly hard, but it also affects the general population. In the absence of at-scale social safety nets, more people could fall under the emergency threshold. The humanitarian community will closely monitor vulnerability levels throughout the country and take appropriate action should emergency thresholds be crossed.

Response priorities in 2021

The 2020 Iraq HRP targeted 1.8 million people. It is projected to reach 1.4 million people by the year’s end despite significant movement and access challenges. The HRP was adjusted in early 2020 to mitigate and respond to the impact of COVID-19 and to adapt implementation to the new operating environment.

The 2021 Iraq HRP will target 2.5 million people, including all IDPs in camps, out-of-camp IDPs in acute need and returnees in acute need, paying attention to age, gender and disability. The targeting criteria thus remain as in 2020. While all in-camp IDPs were reached with assistance in 2020, challenges remained to reach all IDPs out of camp and returnees (projected reach of 71 per cent and 61 per cent, respectively). With ongoing Government-led camp closures, more people are expected to move to out-of-camp settings and the response will have to adjust to address acute needs in these new locations.

Due to the increased number of people facing acute humanitarian needs, the 2021 Iraq HRP will have a decidedly humanitarian focus to alleviate suffering, and to enable the most vulnerable populations to meet basic needs, minimize the use of negative coping mechanisms, access essential services, and live-in safety and dignity.

The humanitarian community will work closely with the Durable Solutions Task Force, which will promote sustainable returns and durable solutions for conflict-affected populations and improve conditions in return areas, and with development partners and the Iraqi Government to address longer-term needs.

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Libya is struggling to cope with the effects of ongoing armed conflict, economic and governance crises, and the direct and indirect impact of COVID-19, all of which have resulted in the deterioration of public services and people’s livelihoods. The crisis in Libya has a strong protection dimension, with violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, including conflict-related sexual violence and grave violations against children.

Due to the armed conflict that extended into 2020, 417 civilian casualties were reported as of June. Indiscriminate shelling has also damaged and destroyed health facilities, schools, water infrastructure, and people’s homes. Between January and September, Libya recorded 28 attacks on medical facilities, ambulances, and medical personnel, resulting in the deaths of eight people and injury of 23 others. Armed conflict and insecurity continued to drive displacement during the first part of the year. A rapid shift of the frontlines in June and July allowed a few thousand people to return home although the destruction of basic services and the presence of explosive hazards remain major constraints that are hindering safe and dignified returns. As of September, 392,000 people remained internally displaced throughout the country.

Libya continues to be at high risk of the spread of COVID-19. A serious obstacle to responding to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the fragmented governance in Libya. By September, a national preparedness and response plan for COVID-19 was still to be endorsed. The true scale of the pandemic is likely still not known due to shortages in COVID-19 testing supplies, adequate health care facilities and contact tracing.

The ability of many people to cover basic needs, including housing, has been eroded by the current economic crisis and the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19. During 2020, the country regularly experienced prolonged power and water cuts, as well as fuel shortages, further affecting people’s livelihoods and disrupting critical services. Movement restrictions imposed to reduce the spread of the virus have driven up the price of essential food and goods by 20 per cent above pre-COVID levels as of September 2020, and negatively affected people’s livelihood opportunities. Unemployment in vulnerable groups have increased with about 27 per cent of surveyed migrant workers unemployed in August, compared to 10 per cent in February. Many women who rely on the informal economy for their livelihoods have been similarly affected. Many migrants and refugees, including children, continued to face arbitrary detention, gender-based violence, forced labour, extortion, and exploitation.

Projected situation in 2021 and beyond

About 1.3 million people are estimated to need some form of humanitarian assistance next year, a 40 per cent increase compared to 2020. The highest needs are found in Alkufra, Benghazi, Ejdabia, and Tripoli due to the impact of armed conflict. These locations also host the highest number of displaced, migrant, and refugee populations. The formal ceasefire agreement signed on 23 October, while still to be implemented, holds promise. Should the ceasefire be accompanied by associated, positive political and economic developments, internal displacement would reduce as households may feel secure enough to return home. Access to services would likely improve as increased revenue, specifically from the oil sector, would allow for more investment in public service delivery. However, these possible improvements could still be hampered in the foreseeable future by the continued impact of COVID-19 cases and imposed prevention measures to curb the spread of the disease.

Even with an optimistic upturn in Libya’s fortunes, humanitarian needs will remain high in the near term as agreements materialize on the ground and the economy rebounds. In the long term, it is anticipated that some vulnerable groups would still require some form of humanitarian assistance until sustainable solutions are achieved. Advocacy would also remain necessary in order to overcome the cultural barriers and discrimination.

Response priorities in 2021

IDPs, returnees, migrants, refugees and non-displaced people who are affected by Libya’s overall context will remain as priority vulnerable groups for the 2021 HRP. A total of 1.3 million people need humanitarian assistance and/or critical protection services. Of those, 451,000 of the most vulnerable people will be targeted by the 2021 HRP. The international humanitarian community will continue to work with Libyan stakeholders to cultivate the capacity of Libyan authorities to lead and implement protection and assistance for those most in need.

Centrality of protection, age, gender and diversity, as well as capacity strengthening, will remain at the core of the humanitarian response. Safeguarding measures to prevent and provide protection from sexual exploitation and abuse will be strengthened. Data management will also be a key component of the response to ensure needs analysis and response planning are people-centered.

The financial requirement for the HRP 2021 is $189 million. The plan will complement Libyan efforts, with an emphasis on increasing coordination and collaboration in a principled manner.

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

A protracted protection crisis continues in oPt, largely attributable to the ongoing occupation, the internal Palestinian divide, continued violations of international law, and recurrent escalations of hostilities between Israel and Palestinian armed groups. 2020 witnessed a sharp increase in the severity of humanitarian needs across oPt. This was due to the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken by the Palestinian Authority (PA) in response to Israel’s threat to formally annex parts of the West Bank. These factors will continue to drive vulnerability and humanitarian need in oPt in 2021.

The COVID-19 mortality rate remains low by global standards (77 persons per million people). However, measures imposed to contain the pandemic (recurrent lockdowns, travel restrictions, school closures, reduction of commercial activities and mandatory quarantines) have severely undermined living conditions across oPt. In Gaza, unemployment in the second quarter of 2020 reached a historical high of over 49 per cent.¹

Compounding the situation was the PA’s decision to halt almost all bilateral contacts with Israel, between May and November, including refusing to accept the tax clearance revenues that Israel collects on its behalf. Together with the economic slowdown due to the pandemic, this severely reduced the PA’s capacity to pay salaries, deliver services and maintain social safety nets. While, by mid-November 2020, the PA had indicated that it would resume coordination with Israel, the impacts are yet to be assessed and damage sustained from the six-month halt remains. UNRWA’s financial crisis also remains an element of concern with the potential for considerable humanitarian consequences across oPt.

There has been a significant decline in conflict-related casualties in 2020. However, concerns about excessive use of force by Israeli soldiers resulting in the killing or serious injury of Palestinians remain, as well as a lack of accountability for violations of international law.² Significant shortfalls in funding for humanitarian organizations alongside an ever-increasing constriction of operational space are increasingly undermining the humanitarian community’s ability to respond to growing needs.

Projected situation in 2021 and beyond

The Palestinian economy is expected to shrink between 2.6 and 7.6 per cent by the year’s end, compared to 2019. The proportion of poor households in the Gaza Strip is projected to increase from 53 to 64 per cent and more than double in the West Bank, from 14 to 30 per cent.³ Against the backdrop of a general deterioration in living conditions and the lack of security coordination between the PA and Israel, the potential remains for an increase in violence, including an escalation of hostilities in Gaza, during 2021.

In the Gaza Strip, the 2 million Palestinians, who have been under Israeli blockade for over 13 years, have been further isolated from the external world by COVID-19-related restrictions and the halt in coordination, with serious impacts on access to medical care. At the same time, the main factors driving the fragile humanitarian situation there remain in place, with no changes foreseen.

In the West Bank, policies and practices affecting Area C, East Jerusalem and the Israeli-controlled part of Hebron city are expected to continue, placing Palestinians at risk of forcible transfer and leading to erosion of livelihoods. Economic development will remain hampered by the occupation and limitations on Palestinian access to land and natural resources, and by a multilayered system of administrative, bureaucratic and physical constraints, including the Barrier. Many of these constraints are linked to the presence of Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law.

Throughout oPt, the most vulnerable people remain those living in poor or women-headed households; Palestine refugees living in refugee camps; children, particularly those under 5 years of age; the older population; pregnant and lactating women; persons with disabilities; small-scale farmers, herders and fishers; and displaced people.

Response priorities in 2021

In 2020, humanitarian partners aimed to reach 1.5 million Palestinians with assistance through the HRP. However, due to the COVID-19 outbreak in oPt, by April most of the regular HRP activities had been reprogrammed to respond to pandemic-generated needs. Overall, 1.2 million Palestinians received humanitarian assistance in 2020, including 300,000 people targeted by the original plan.

Key achievements included the allocation and mobilization of resources. This covered 94 per cent of the funds requested for the plan, meeting basic WASH needs for the most vulnerable people during the COVID-19 crisis. The oPt Humanitarian Fund provided rapid and flexible support to humanitarian operations to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak in oPt.

In 2021, an estimated 2.4 million Palestinians across oPt will require humanitarian assistance. The majority, 64 per cent, live in the Gaza Strip. Although this total is only slightly more than the estimate for 2020 (2.41 million), the number of people suffering from severe need has increased. Of the total number of people in need, humanitarian partners will aim to assist the most vulnerable (1.8 million people), with a financial requirement of $417 million.

Their needs will be addressed through multisector efforts that aim to protect the rights of Palestinians living under occupation, provide access to essential services for the most vulnerable, and support Palestinians’ ability to cope with the effects of the crisis, while more sustainable solutions are sought. The 2021 HRP will maintain the centrality of protection as a shared system-wide responsibility.

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs 

After a decade of crisis in Syria, humanitarian needs remain extensive and multifaceted across the country. Hostilities causing civilian casualties, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, and violations of IHL and IHRL remain features of the crisis, but they have become increasingly localized in 2020. The security situation remains fluid, particularly in north-west Syria (NWS), where a ceasefire is in place but breaches have been reported, – as well as in southern areas under local reconciliation agreements.

Syria’s economy has experienced an unprecedented downturn, exacerbated by issues including years of conflict and the financial crisis in Lebanon. The resulting sharp depreciation of the Syrian currency to an all-time low has spurred unprecedented price increases for staple goods, particularly bread and fuel. COVID-19 has been a further aggravating factor, negatively impacting an already depleted workforce and debilitated health system, in which only 58 per cent of hospitals are reported to be fully functional.

Over the past year, an already complex humanitarian access situation has become more challenging; the number of border-crossing points authorized by the UN Security Council for UN-delivered assistance and supplies has been reduced from four (in 2019) to just one.

The combined impact of these changes has been far-reaching, with several factors currently driving needs. Hostility-induced mass displacements have decreased since March 2020, but life-threatening needs remain disproportionately high among displaced communities. More than 1.5 million of the 2.7 million IDPs in NWS currently shelter in around 1,100 “last resort” sites. Many of these sites are overcrowded, and access to shelter, safe water, food, health and psychosocial support is inadequate.

Acute needs stemming from a lack of access to basic services, livelihoods and economic opportunities, combined with high levels of destruction to critical civilian infrastructure, including health facilities, water systems and schools, are also observed in parts of Deir-ez-Zor, Al-Hasakeh and Raqqa Governorates in north-east Syria; in Dar’a Governorate in the south; and in overburdened host communities in Damascus and Rural Damascus.

Across Syria, the dramatic socioeconomic decline has reduced purchasing power and the availability of essential goods and services. It has also severely limited employment opportunities, adding to growing poverty. The average food basket in Syria cost 247 per cent more in October 2020 than at the same time in 2019. These trends have resulted in a sharp increase in food insecurity – from 7.9 million people a year ago to 9.3 million by July 2020.

Additional ‘silent’ consequences of years of crisis include unprecedented levels of stunting affecting 674,000 children under 5 years of age (a 37 per cent increase compared to 2019); increased morbidity related to non-communicable diseases; gender-based violence (GBV); and widespread psychological trauma, especially in children. More families are being forced to make unacceptable trade-offs to survive, including skipping meals, taking on additional debt, and pre-emptively moving to areas where humanitarian assistance is assured, such as camps.

The widespread lack of livelihoods and employment opportunities, inadequate access to basic services and growing food insecurity have become principal drivers of need, denying millions of people the ability to meet their basic needs in a dignified, self-sustained manner.

Projected situation in 2021 and beyond 

These trends are expected to continue into 2021, leading to an increase in PiN from 11.1 million to an estimated 13 million in 2021.⁴ The scale of needs stemming from new or recurrent displacements will depend on a potential increase in hostilities in NWS, as well as other locations. Syria remains a ‘protection crisis,’ with related needs resulting from hostilities, widespread explosive hazard contamination, psychological trauma, GBV and family separation, among others.

Returns are expected to continue in line with trends in 2020. Even if a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available, the virus is expected to spread further. It will spare few people, but most acutely affect people living in densely populated areas and/or areas where basic service provision is weak.

Response priorities in  2021 

Consequently, humanitarian actors will focus their multisectoral response efforts on the following priorities in 2021:

• Respond to critical protection risks, ensuring protection risk assessments inform all humanitarian programming.

• Maintain critical basic services, including through the rehabilitation of key civilian infrastructure, with a focus on mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on people’s health and its secondary effects on livelihoods, education and protection needs.

• Scale up livelihood and agricultural support to respond to growing food insecurity.

• Improve chronic malnutrition among under-fives and nutritional deficiencies in pregnant and lactating women through coordinated nutrition, food security, health and WASH interventions.

• Address basic needs of the most vulnerable IDP, host community and returnee households as flexibly as possible, including addressing assistance gaps in last-resort IDP sites, with a particular focus on winterization support.

To access people in need, humanitarian responders will continue to leverage and advocate for all cross-border and cross-line response modalities. The UN estimates that 10.5 million people will be targeted with humanitarian assistance in 2021. This is an increase from 9.5 million people at a cost of $4.2 billion, which is a 10 per cent increase compared to 2020.

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Humanitarian needs continued to grow in 2020, driven by the escalating conflict and a protracted economic blockade that has fuelled the ongoing economic crisis. The situation was exacerbated by torrential rains, a fuel crisis, the threat of desert locusts and COVID-19. The operating environment continues to be extremely restricted, hindering a principled aid operation, and the humanitarian response was crippled by a huge funding shortfall. Capacity within the humanitarian operation was a further limitation. By mid-2020, Yemen had returned to alarming levels of food insecurity and acute malnutrition. All indications suggest that the severity of needs for large sections of the population is increasing. COVID-19 has compounded food insecurity, mainly due to limited work opportunities, lower incomes and reduced remittances.

Conflict intensified during 2020, resulting in shocking levels of civilian suffering. By the end of October, there were 47 front lines, up from 33 in January 2020. The war had already caused an estimated 233,000 deaths, including 131,000 from indirect causes such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure. Hostilities have directly caused tens of thousands of civilian casualties; 3,153 child deaths and 5,660 children were verified in the first five years of the conflict, and 1,500 civilian casualties were reported in the first nine months of 2020. Attacks continue on facilities protected by international humanitarian law, including medical centers.

Yemen’s economy was subject to further shocks this year and macroeconomic stability remained absent. By the end of September, the Yemeni rial had depreciated to an all-time low of YER850 (US$3.4) in southern governorates. Foreign reserves dried up, and remittances from Yemenis abroad, the largest source of foreign exchange, fell by up to 70 per cent due to the COVID-19 global downturn. With nearly all goods imported, more people are being squeezed out of markets, unable to afford essential items. Fuel shortages in northern governorates from June onwards exacerbated the humanitarian situation, reducing essential services and the transport of essential goods, constraining access to income opportunities and restricting the humanitarian operation.

Between April and August 2020, heavy rains and flooding devastated communities, causing deaths and injuries, destroying infrastructure and livelihoods, and increasing the spread of deadly diseases. Tens of thousands of families were affected, many of them already displaced. Other natural hazards pose a threat, including desert locust infestations, which are expected to cause damage and loss worth $222 million to staple crops, animals and livestock.

Despite some advances made with authorities in overcoming bureaucratic constraints, the operating environment shrank further in 2020. Since August 2020, some 19.1 million people in need were in hard-to-reach areas, where armed conflict and insecurity, bureaucratic constraints and logistic impediments often combined to challenge aid deliveries. By October, most COVID-19-related restrictions had been lifted, but pre-existing challenges around movement restrictions and interference in humanitarian activities still hamper the response. Humanitarian staff continue to be detained, harassed and threatened and their visas arbitrarily refused or withdrawn.

With only 50 per cent received of the $3.386 billion needed to fund the response, drastic cuts have been made to the aid operation, and 31 out of 41 critical UN programmes have been reduced or closed. Aid agencies are now reaching about 10.7 million people a month, down from over 13.6 million people a month at the start of the year.

More than 3.6 million civilians have been displaced due to the conflict, including at least 158,000 in 2020. Some of the highest levels of vulnerability are concentrated in IDP sites where very few services are available. An estimated 422,000 migrants, asylum seekers and refugees in Yemen are at extreme risk and an estimated 138,000 are completely reliant on aid. COVID-19 resulted in a backlash against this group, many of whom have been forcibly moved, detained and subjected to inhumane conditions. Thousands remain stranded in dire need of assistance.

Humanitarians continue to work towards delivering an efficient, effective and principled response, but the outlook remains bleak. The latest (partial) IPC analyses show that by December 2020, the population facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) will increase from 2 million to 3.2 million people (40 per cent of the 7.9 million population analysed in the south). In December 2018, a quarter of a million people were found to have slipped into severe food crisis, with the worst hunger clustered in conflict-affected areas.

Acute malnutrition among children under 5 years of age has hit record levels in some areas. Over half a million children under 5 years of age face acute malnutrition, up 9.5 per cent. Severe acute malnutrition is up by 15.5 per cent this year, leaving 100,000 young children at risk of dying without treatment. There are acute WASH deficits in 54 districts, and 46 districts are at high risk of cholera. COVID-19 is an added burden on the fragile health system, where only 50 per cent of facilities are functional. This has discouraged the population from seeking treatment for other deadly diseases and conditions.

Projected situation in 2021 and beyond

In 2021 the situation is expected to deteriorate further, and the severity of needs is expected to increase unless there is conflict de-escalation and an improvement in the economy and funding.

Response priorities in 2021

During 2021, more than 105 partners across Yemen plan to assist 19 million people.⁵ The response will prioritize: fighting hunger by providing food assistance and supporting livelihoods; reducing outbreaks of cholera and infectious diseases; providing basic services to displaced families living in emergency and IDP settlements; protecting civilians and advocating for adherence to international humanitarian law; and rehabilitating public infrastructure to enable life-saving basic services to the population.