Hunger is Rising, COVID-19 Will Make it Worse

The rise of hunger shows no signs of abating. By the end of 2020, the number of acutely food insecure people could increase to 270 million due to COVID-19, representing an 82 per cent increase compared to the number of acutely food insecure people pre-COVID-19.¹ Urgent and sustained humanitarian action is needed to avoid further deterioration and to prevent a risk of famine in areas already on the brink of starvation.

Nearly 690 million people were undernourished in 2019, up by almost 60 million since 2014.² Nearly half of all deaths in children under age five are attributable to undernutrition and, regrettably, stunting and wasting still have strong impacts worldwide. In 2019, 21 per cent of all children under age five (144 million) were stunted and 49.5 million children experienced wasting.³ The effects of the pandemic will increase child hunger, and an additional 6.7 million children are predicted to be wasted by the end of 2020 due to the pandemic’s impact.⁴ The situation continues to be most alarming in Africa: 19 per cent of its population is under-nourished (more than 250 million people), with the highest prevalence of undernourishment among all global regions. Africa is the only region where the number of stunted children has risen since 2000.⁵ Women and girls represent more than 70 per cent of people facing chronic hunger. They are more likely to reduce their meal intake in times of food scarcity and may be pushed to engage in negative coping mechanisms, such as transactional sex and child, early and forced marriage.⁶

Funding requirements for food security in humanitarian appeals have steadily increased and almost doubled over the last five years. This worrying trend has grown from $4.7 billion in 2015 to $8.9 billion in 2020.⁷

Conflict is the main cause of acute hunger – 77 million people in 22 countries experienced hunger due to armed violence and insecurity in 2019.⁸ Seventy per cent of the top 20 countries at risk of food insecurity are in fragile and conflict-affected situations.⁹ Pre-COVID-19 estimates of acute food insecurity in West and Central Africa already indicated a conflict-induced increase for 2020.¹⁰ However, COVID-19’s compounding impact could increase food insecurity in the region by 135 per cent.

Extreme climatic events drove almost 34 million people into food crisis in 25 countries in 2019, 77 per cent of them in Africa.¹¹ The number of people pushed into food crisis by economic shocks more than doubled to 24 million in eight countries in 2019 (compared to 10 million people in six countries the previous year).¹² Food insecurity is set to get much worse unless unsustainable global food systems are addressed. Soils around the world are heading for exhaustion and depletion. An estimated 33 per cent of global soils are already degraded, endangering food production and the provision of vital ecosystem services.

Evidence from food security assessments and analysis shows that COVID-19 has had a compounding effect on pre-existing vulnerabilities and stressors in countries with pre-existing food crises. In Sudan, an estimated 9.6 million people (21 per cent of the population) were experiencing crisis or worse levels of food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in the third quarter of 2020 and needed urgent action. This is the highest figure ever recorded for Sudan.¹³

Food security needs are set to increase dramatically in 2021 as the pandemic and global response measures seriously affect food systems worldwide. Entire food supply chains have been disrupted, and the cost of a basic food basket increased by more than 10 per cent in 20 countries in the second quarter of 2020.¹⁴ Delays in the farming season due to disruptions in supply chains and restrictions on labour movement are resulting in below-average harvests across many countries and regions. This is magnified by pre-existing or seasonal threats and vulnerabilities, such as conflict and violence, looming hurricane and monsoon seasons, and locust infestations.¹⁵

Further climatic changes are expected from La Niña. Forecasters predict a 55 per cent change in climate conditions through the first quarter of 2021,¹⁶ impacting sea temperatures, rainfall patterns and hurricane activity. The ensuing floods and droughts that could result from La Niña will affect farming seasons worldwide, potentially decreasing crop yields and increasing food insecurity levels.